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Real Estate Big Data

America’s most popular relocation destination is Austin (by a landslide)

The same issues that are driving Americans out of the US (too expensive, too chaotic, too much crime and just plain too much) are driving citizens out of most of America’s big cities and into what is referred to as second-tier cities.

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An interesting anecdote before we begin: After spending a good part of my life overseas and around the world I’ve noticed that more and more ex-pats (ex-patriots) have given up on living in the United States and packed their bags in hopes of finding that special foreign locale that offers a decent infrastructure and an inexpensive standard of living.

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For example, Panama is pretty hot right now as are Costa Rica and the Dominican Republican. In the European Union, Croatia is big and Bulgaria is right around the corner. So if you can deal with not-so-reliable internet and crazy bureaucracy, there’s a lot to be said for spending your days in a location like Coronado Beach, Panama.

What, you’re asking, does this have to do with living in the United States?

According to the latest census data and reported by Bloomberg.com, the same issues that are driving Americans out of the US (too expensive, too chaotic, too much crime and just plain too much) are driving citizens out of most of America’s big cities and into what is referred to as second-tier cities.

Headin’ West

No longer is the impetus to find a good place to retire. The incentive in the 21st century is much more practical: find a place to survive. So it is that census data released late last month gives the 2013 population estimates for metro areas and the biggest increase in domestic migration from 2010 to 2013 drew newcomers to America’s second-tier cities. At the top of the list: Austin, Texas which is fast-eclipsing Seattle, Washington as the start-up capital of the US.

population growth

Certainly there’s something positive to be said about the top ten cities on the list but as Forbes.com points out, “Austin consistently sits atop Forbes’ annual list of the best cities for jobs and scores highly in other demographics rankings.” Not only that, but Austin, Texas is the third-fastest-growing city in the nation, attracting not only large numbers of college grads, but also immigrants and families with young children.

Coming from all over

Not to single out Austin over any of the other cities on the aforementioned list (but it does happen to be #1, and The Real Daily does happen to headquartered here), things are perceived to be so good in Austin that the city is pulling in young and old alike from most of the biggest hubs in the US. Notice I said “perceived” because already doom-and-gloomers are forecasting the saturation point in this and other second-tier cities which means that sooner or later it will be the third-tier cities that will appeal more and more to individuals searching for a more affordable way of life.

moving to austin

Keeping up is hard to do

Kudos to Austin, Raleigh NC and even San Antonio, Texas (which rank in the top three) But how does a city like Chicago or New York keep up? There’s no easy solution but for sure high taxes, mortgages that are out of reach and minimum wage jobs aren’t the answer.

#ATX

Nearly three decades living and working all over the world as a radio and television broadcast journalist in the United States Air Force, Staff Writer, Gary Picariello is now retired from the military and is focused on his writing career.

Real Estate Big Data

Housing prices rise, outpacing wage increases

(REAL ESTATE NEWS) A new joint report from NAR and realtor.com reveal that affordability conditions are eroding and there are very few cures to this problem.

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housing sales

Good ol’ economics – housing demand continues to outpace supply, and bidding wars are now common in many cities. On a national scale, affordability is increasingly threatening many peoples’ ability to buy, based on their income.

The realtor.com and National Association of Realtors joint report, the Realtors Affordability Distribution Curve and Score, examines affordability conditions compared to income levels for active inventory in local markets. Higher scores suggest a particular market has more affordable homes in proportion to local income levels.

It’s no surprise that in March, the report indicates the least affordable (in proportion to income) is Hawaii, California, Oregon, the District of Columbia, Montana, and Rhode Island. In these states, households at the median income level can only afford 19 to 23 percent of the active housing inventory.

In contrast, the most affordable states are Ohio, Indiana, Kansas, Iowa, and West Virginia, where a a typical household can afford 54 to 62 percent of all active inventory.

The report also indicates that more local markets are seeing worse affordability conditions compared to last year, with L.A., San Diego, San Jose, Ventura, and San Francisco leading the pack. In these markets, the typical household can only afford 3.0 to 11 percent of homes available for sale in their markets.

The typical household can afford nearly 75 percent of homes for sale in Dayton, OH, Toledo, OH, and Scranton, PA.

NAR’s Chief Economist, Dr. Lawrence Yun stated, “The survey confirms that the lack of entry-level supply is putting affordability pressures on too many buyers – especially those at the lower end of the market, where demand is the strongest.”

The report makes even more apparent why first-time buyers “struggle finding affordable properties to buy and are making up less than a third of home sales so far this year,” said Dr. Yun.

Although wages are on the rise, housing prices are outpacing these increases, and Dr. Yun points to the solution being “more homeowners selling, investors releasing their portfolio of single-family homes back onto the market and more single-family housing construction.”

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NAR Reports

Home sales on the rise – don’t call it a comeback (okay, do)

(REAL ESTATE) Inventory levels continue to fall as prices rise, making for a competitive market. After a tough winter, February saw considerable gains in home sales.

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housing sales

For years, inventory levels have been sinking, and prices have been growing, making the home buying process increasingly complex and sometimes discouraging. But after two consecutive months of declining sales, existing-home sales made a comeback in February, rising 3.0 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales are now 1.1 percent higher than February of last year. #GoodNews

Although home sales in the Midwest and Northeast saw a dip in this period, the South and West regions skyrocketed, boosting the national numbers.

Dr. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist noted that “The very healthy U.S. economy and labor market are creating a sizeable interest in buying a home in early 2018. However, even as seasonal inventory gains helped boost sales last month, home prices – especially in the West – shot up considerably. Affordability continues to be a pressing issue because new and existing housing supply is still severely subpar.”

Added Yun, “The unseasonably cold weather to start the year muted pending sales in the Northeast and Midwest in January and ultimately led to their sales retreat last month. Looking ahead, several markets in the Northeast will likely see even more temporary disruptions from the large winter storms that have occurred in March.”

Click to enlarge.

In February, the median home price rose to $241,700, a 5.9 percent increase from February 2017, and the 72nd straight month of annual gains. The average days on market fell to 37, down from 41 in January, and 45 last February. That’s what we call a competitive market.

NAR President Elizabeth Mendenhall comments on the difficulty first-time buyers are seeing in this competitive market. “Realtors® in several markets note that entry-level homes for first-timers are hard to come by, which is contributing to their underperforming share of overall sales to start the year. Prospective buyers should start conversations with a Realtor® now on what they want in a new home. Even with the expected uptick in new listings in coming months, buyers in most markets will likely have to act fast on any available listing that checks all their boxes.”

Regional performance varied, with sales in the West outperforming all other regions. While sales fell in the Northeast by 12.3 percent, and dropped 2.4 percent in the Midwest, they skyrocketed 11.4 percent in the West, and 6.6 percent in the South.

february existing home sales

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Economics

Why it’s about to get more expensive to get a mortgage

(FINANCE) Borrowing money is getting more expensive, especially for those looking to get a mortgage. But why?

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bonds and mortgages

Although there have been some blips, bonds have grown substantially in value since the 1980s. They’ve performed extremely well for a number of reasons, not least of which is the big slowdown in inflation over that time period.

The result, for investors, has been that anything “bond-lik,e” i.e. capable of paying a regular income – like a high-dividend stock or even a property like your home – has shot up in value. A reversal of bond prices would mean less support for such investments.

That’s what the economy is currently experiencing. According to Financial Times, American worker wage growth is hastening the sell-off of bonds by the US government, which is decreasing the overall price of bonds. As bond prices go down, the interest rates that they offer new investors go up. That rate jumped to 2.85 percent last Friday, the highest level since 2014.

Since the rates at which banks lend their money are largely based on the interest rates offered by bonds, regular folks looking to take out a mortgage or a loan are facing higher costs.

How does this work?

If we’re talkin’ bond prices, we’re talkin’ yield. When the price of a bond goes up, the yield of that bond goes down! Let’s say you’re getting paid $5 each year. If you pay $50 for that right, then you’re making a 10% “yield” (5/50 = 10%). But if you pay $100 for that right, then you’re making a 5% “yield” (5/100 = 5%).

It’s the same thing with the price of a bond because the amount a bond investor gets paid (usually) is fixed. And so, when the bond goes up in value, the “yield” goes down – and vice versa.

For realtors, its important to help clients shop for the best rates to improve their confidence in this market. Leveraging the right online and local financing resources can help potential buyers get the best deal. Explaining broader market context is also critical. Historically, a three percent interest rate is still very low.

According to Investopedia, mortgage rates averaged 7.81% in 1996 and 10.19% in 1986. Instilling confidence with information will put buyers and sellers in the right place to make moves.

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