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Real Estate Big Data

What your occupation says about your divorce probability

(BIG DATA) Recently, a statistician decided to crunch and compile numbers to see where exactly which profession and income fell along the divorce rate curve.

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The divorce rate in this country is absurd. While it is a widely disputed topic, most people quote the rate at somewhere around 40-50%. Whoa.

Recently, one study dove into if there was any correlation between occupation and divorce rate and it was equally predictable and fascinating.

Before the study began, there was a note made that different groups of people have different divorce rates. Generally speaking, the unemployed have a higher rate than the employed, Asians tend to have a lower rate than other races, and education level tends to play a pretty big part in divorce rates as well.

The study, though, focused on specific occupation and not general background data. Statistician Nathan Yau took data from the Census Bureau’s 5-Year American Community Survey from 2015 to do the calculations.

As it turns out, actuaries have the lowest rates. At 17%, it seems pretty fitting seeing as actuaries are the assessors of risk and uncertainty so it makes sense that would apply that assessment to their life and future spouse.

Actuaries were followed by miscellaneous scientists, engineers and architects, technology workers and other medical professionals. Those all were located near the 20% rate.

The Median Divorce Rate quoted on this study was at 36% ish and hovering around there were service industry workers, nurses, construction workers and a handful of other blue collar workers.

Just higher than median at roughly 37% were those who were in sales — I’m lookin’ at you travel agents, real estate brokers, and car salesmen.

At the high side were people who, I’m going to take a guess, are either thanked too much or not enough. At the top of the chart we found people like entertainers, athletes and celebrities (those thanked too much) as well as personal care workers, millwrights and telemarketers (those not thanked enough).

At the very tippy top of the list were flight attendants at 51%, bartenders at 52%, and gaming managers at 53%.

Upon seeing trends in occupation, a correlation was drawn to income and divorce as well.

It was concluded that people with higher salaried occupations tend to have a lower divorce rate — ie physicians/surgeons (~$160k, 21%), podiatrists (~$100k, 22%), and actuaries (~$98k, 17%) — while occupations with lower incomes had higher rates — ie flight attendants (~$40k, 51%), bartenders (~$19k, 52%), and gaming managers (~$41k, 53%).

It is worth mentioning that correlation is not causation (my high school economics teacher would be so proud) and that divorce rates are not an absolute science. I’m sure there are physicians on their fifth spouse and bartenders well into a decade of marriage.

As a child of divorce I have a morbid interest in studies like this and in the interest of not being a statistic myself (a kid from a divorce that gets divorced) I have one very important question: Anyone know where to meet an actuary?

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Kiri Isaac is the Web Producer at The American Genius and studied communications at Texas A&M. She is fluent in sarcasm and movie quotes and her love language is tacos.

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Real Estate Big Data

With housing demand so high, why are sales stagnant?

(REAL ESTATE NEWS) The housing market is on fire, yet some serious constraints are holding back sales levels – let’s discuss.

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If you have a pulse and are on the internet, you already know that the housing market is white hot, with bidding wars in more cities than ever. So why in the world are home sales stagnating?

Pending home sales rose only 0.4 percent in March, according to the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR’s) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), decreasing 3.0 percent on an annualized basis – the third consecutive month of annual dips.

Despite a strong economy, NAR points yet again to “unrelenting inventory constraints” which they recently said would only be relieved by builders stepping up production, more homeowners putting their home on the market, and/or investors releasing inventory.

NAR’s Chief Economist, Dr. Lawrence Yun says contract activity is moving sideways and not breaking higher despite the strong job-creating economy.

“Healthy economic conditions are creating considerable demand for purchasing a home, but not all buyers are able to sign contracts because of the lack of choices in inventory,” said Dr. Yun.

He continued, “Steady price growth and the swift pace listings are coming off the market are proof that more supply is needed to fully satisfy demand. What continues to hold back sales is the fact that prospective buyers are increasingly having difficulty finding an affordable home to buy.”

Dr. Yun forecasts that existing home sales will hit 5.61 million this year (up slightly from 5.51 million last year), also forecasting the national median home price will rise 4.4 percent.

He notes that affordability and availability are holding back home sales, combined with price appreciation outpacing incomes, and mortgage rates rising, sales will soon peak.

“Much of the country is enjoying a thriving job market, but buying a home is becoming more expensive,” said Yun. “That is why it is an absolute necessity for there to be a large increase in new and existing homes available for sale in coming months to moderate home price growth. Otherwise, sales will remain stuck in this holding pattern and a growing share of would-be buyers – especially first-time buyers – will be left on the sidelines.”

This story originally published on April 30, 2018.

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Real Estate Big Data

Home sales surge in half of the nation, slump in the other half

(REAL ESTATE NEWS) Home sales rose last month, despite challenging inventory and affordability conditions – but not in all markets.

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Talk about mixed signals. We ended last week with alarm bells that affordability is restricting the housing market, yet home sales in March actually surged in the Northeast (up 6.3 percent) and Midwest (up 5.7 percent) compared to just one month prior.

Meanwhile, home sales slipped 0.4 percent in the South, and a whopping 3.1 percent in the West. Sales levels in all four regions are lower than they were at this time last year, reinforcing the supply and demand challenges, putting homeownership out of reach for a growing pool of potential buyers.

NAR Chief Economist, Dr. Lawrence Yun has indicated that the only way to loosen the noose is a combination of more current homeowners opting to sell, builders increasing new home production, and investors releasing inventory.

In the last year, the median existing home price rose 5.8 percent to $250,4000 with March as the 73rd consecutive month of annual gains.

The average number of days on market decreased to 30 days from 37 in February and 34 in March of 2017. Half of all home sold were on the market for less than a month, and in some cities, bidding wars and immediate sales are common.

“Although the strong job market and recent tax cuts are boosting the incomes of many households, speedy price growth is squeezing overall affordability in several markets – especially those out West,” said Dr. Yun.

That said, there is a silver lining.

NAR President Elizabeth Mendenhall, a sixth-generation Realtor® from Columbia, Missouri and CEO of RE/MAX Boone Realty notes, “First-time buyers continue to make up an underperforming share of the market because there are simply not enough homes for sale in their price range.”

Supply conditions improve in higher up price brackets,” concluded Mendenhall, “which means those trading up should see considerable interest in their home, as well as more listings to choose from during their own search.”

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Real Estate Big Data

Housing prices rise, outpacing wage increases

(REAL ESTATE NEWS) A new joint report from NAR and realtor.com reveal that affordability conditions are eroding and there are very few cures to this problem.

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Good ol’ economics – housing demand continues to outpace supply, and bidding wars are now common in many cities. On a national scale, affordability is increasingly threatening many peoples’ ability to buy, based on their income.

The realtor.com and National Association of Realtors joint report, the Realtors Affordability Distribution Curve and Score, examines affordability conditions compared to income levels for active inventory in local markets. Higher scores suggest a particular market has more affordable homes in proportion to local income levels.

It’s no surprise that in March, the report indicates the least affordable (in proportion to income) is Hawaii, California, Oregon, the District of Columbia, Montana, and Rhode Island. In these states, households at the median income level can only afford 19 to 23 percent of the active housing inventory.

In contrast, the most affordable states are Ohio, Indiana, Kansas, Iowa, and West Virginia, where a a typical household can afford 54 to 62 percent of all active inventory.

The report also indicates that more local markets are seeing worse affordability conditions compared to last year, with L.A., San Diego, San Jose, Ventura, and San Francisco leading the pack. In these markets, the typical household can only afford 3.0 to 11 percent of homes available for sale in their markets.

The typical household can afford nearly 75 percent of homes for sale in Dayton, OH, Toledo, OH, and Scranton, PA.

NAR’s Chief Economist, Dr. Lawrence Yun stated, “The survey confirms that the lack of entry-level supply is putting affordability pressures on too many buyers – especially those at the lower end of the market, where demand is the strongest.”

The report makes even more apparent why first-time buyers “struggle finding affordable properties to buy and are making up less than a third of home sales so far this year,” said Dr. Yun.

Although wages are on the rise, housing prices are outpacing these increases, and Dr. Yun points to the solution being “more homeowners selling, investors releasing their portfolio of single-family homes back onto the market and more single-family housing construction.”

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