Connect with us

Real Estate Big Data

US Census results show times are a changing (so might your business)

(BIG DATA) New Census data gives us insight into a few key takeaways regarding population shifts and how this is affecting the real estate market.

Published

on

generation z

The Census results are in

Seriously, get excited. It’s hard to get psyched for spreadsheets. I get that. But the US Census results are as important as spreadsheets get, and for real estate in particular, it’s vital to know who’s where and why.

bar
The details for the 2016 census came in last week, and while it’s not mandatory reading, Trulia has taken a deep dive into the subject.

The details are absolutely worth your time, but here are four big takeaways for anyone in the business:

1. America is old

Ironically, the most important demographic trend in the eternal geopolitical adolescent that is the United States, full to the brim though it is of new tech and youth-worshipping advertising, is the increasing prevalence and importance of older adults.

To state the obvious, more old folks around is a very good thing.

For one, it means our overall health is improving. For another, it means a more stable, consistency-oriented marketplace than us twitchy millennials and Gen Y types.

As we’ve previously written, older Boomers are taking over the housing market. The fact that every one of the 100 major metro areas in the United States saw an increase in the population of adults 65 years of age or older, representing growth from 14.9% to 15.2% of the national population, is big news for real estate, because those folks buy it.

2. America is not white

For any of y’all still laboring under the impression that America is supposed to be a solely European-American nation – seriously guys, not since Leif Erickson’s brother-in-law ran screaming from the people who are actually from here; come to The Real Daily for all your obscure historical trivia needs – Caucasian population (that’s just fun to write) has shown neither growth nor decline in the last two years.

Nationwide, all population growth between 2015 and now has been 50.7% Hispanic, 23.4% Asian, 15.8% black, 8.6% people identifying as two or more of those races, and a whopping 0.2% Caucasian.

Importantly, white populations aren’t declining either. America’s just made up of everybody. Market likewise.

3. Trends stay trending

For all of the rhetoric on both sides of the political spectrum, the demographic changes shown in the Census track what trends they’ve clocked since the far-away days of the year 2000. In fact, population change has slowed in that time: between 2000 and 2010 the population grew at a rate of 0.9%; from 2010 to the present it’s slowed to 0.7%.

Immigration has not spiked, nor have demographics undergone substantial changes nationwide. That’s the math.

If someone says otherwise, exercise skepticism.

4. Cities are changing

Trends may be consistent nationwide, but there are always outliers, and outliers can mean opportunity.

Notably, as of the most recent census 26 of American’s 100 biggest metro areas are majority-minority, which is to say, the minority population taken as a whole is larger than the Caucasian one. That’s the same as 2015, but representative of a substantial change over time: in 2000, there were just 14.

Urban populations are absolutely getting more diverse, and people doing business in those places need to take note.

Some are also moving in surprising directions.

The Hispanic population of the Bay Area, California is declining: the only two metros of the 100 tracked by the census that showed a decline in Hispanic population this year are San Francisco and San Jose. Conversely, the most rapidly changing cities are Fort Lauderdale and Orlando, Florida, both of which saw a major influx of Hispanic-Americans this year as well as the last.

Interestingly, Las Vegas also saw a rise in both its Hispanic and Asian-American population.

That’s the word from the American org chart. Time to do business accordingly.

>

#censusnews

Matt Salter is a writer and former fundraising and communications officer for nonprofit organizations, including Volunteers of America and PICO National Network. He’s excited to put his knowledge of fundraising, marketing, and all things digital to work for your reading enjoyment. When not writing about himself in the third person, Matt enjoys horror movies and tabletop gaming, and can usually be found somewhere in the DFW Metroplex with WiFi and a good all-day breakfast.

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Real Estate Big Data

With housing demand so high, why are sales stagnant?

(REAL ESTATE NEWS) The housing market is on fire, yet some serious constraints are holding back sales levels – let’s discuss.

Published

on

housing optimism

If you have a pulse and are on the internet, you already know that the housing market is white hot, with bidding wars in more cities than ever. So why in the world are home sales stagnating?

Pending home sales rose only 0.4 percent in March, according to the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR’s) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), decreasing 3.0 percent on an annualized basis – the third consecutive month of annual dips.

Despite a strong economy, NAR points yet again to “unrelenting inventory constraints” which they recently said would only be relieved by builders stepping up production, more homeowners putting their home on the market, and/or investors releasing inventory.

NAR’s Chief Economist, Dr. Lawrence Yun says contract activity is moving sideways and not breaking higher despite the strong job-creating economy.

“Healthy economic conditions are creating considerable demand for purchasing a home, but not all buyers are able to sign contracts because of the lack of choices in inventory,” said Dr. Yun.

He continued, “Steady price growth and the swift pace listings are coming off the market are proof that more supply is needed to fully satisfy demand. What continues to hold back sales is the fact that prospective buyers are increasingly having difficulty finding an affordable home to buy.”

Dr. Yun forecasts that existing home sales will hit 5.61 million this year (up slightly from 5.51 million last year), also forecasting the national median home price will rise 4.4 percent.

He notes that affordability and availability are holding back home sales, combined with price appreciation outpacing incomes, and mortgage rates rising, sales will soon peak.

“Much of the country is enjoying a thriving job market, but buying a home is becoming more expensive,” said Yun. “That is why it is an absolute necessity for there to be a large increase in new and existing homes available for sale in coming months to moderate home price growth. Otherwise, sales will remain stuck in this holding pattern and a growing share of would-be buyers – especially first-time buyers – will be left on the sidelines.”

Continue Reading

Real Estate Big Data

Home sales surge in half of the nation, slump in the other half

(REAL ESTATE NEWS) Home sales rose last month, despite challenging inventory and affordability conditions – but not in all markets.

Published

on

home sales

Talk about mixed signals. We ended last week with alarm bells that affordability is restricting the housing market, yet home sales in March actually surged in the Northeast (up 6.3 percent) and Midwest (up 5.7 percent) compared to just one month prior.

Meanwhile, home sales slipped 0.4 percent in the South, and a whopping 3.1 percent in the West. Sales levels in all four regions are lower than they were at this time last year, reinforcing the supply and demand challenges, putting homeownership out of reach for a growing pool of potential buyers.

NAR Chief Economist, Dr. Lawrence Yun has indicated that the only way to loosen the noose is a combination of more current homeowners opting to sell, builders increasing new home production, and investors releasing inventory.

In the last year, the median existing home price rose 5.8 percent to $250,4000 with March as the 73rd consecutive month of annual gains.

The average number of days on market decreased to 30 days from 37 in February and 34 in March of 2017. Half of all home sold were on the market for less than a month, and in some cities, bidding wars and immediate sales are common.

“Although the strong job market and recent tax cuts are boosting the incomes of many households, speedy price growth is squeezing overall affordability in several markets – especially those out West,” said Dr. Yun.

That said, there is a silver lining.

NAR President Elizabeth Mendenhall, a sixth-generation Realtor® from Columbia, Missouri and CEO of RE/MAX Boone Realty notes, “First-time buyers continue to make up an underperforming share of the market because there are simply not enough homes for sale in their price range.”

Supply conditions improve in higher up price brackets,” concluded Mendenhall, “which means those trading up should see considerable interest in their home, as well as more listings to choose from during their own search.”

Continue Reading

Real Estate Big Data

Housing prices rise, outpacing wage increases

(REAL ESTATE NEWS) A new joint report from NAR and realtor.com reveal that affordability conditions are eroding and there are very few cures to this problem.

Published

on

housing sales

Good ol’ economics – housing demand continues to outpace supply, and bidding wars are now common in many cities. On a national scale, affordability is increasingly threatening many peoples’ ability to buy, based on their income.

The realtor.com and National Association of Realtors joint report, the Realtors Affordability Distribution Curve and Score, examines affordability conditions compared to income levels for active inventory in local markets. Higher scores suggest a particular market has more affordable homes in proportion to local income levels.

It’s no surprise that in March, the report indicates the least affordable (in proportion to income) is Hawaii, California, Oregon, the District of Columbia, Montana, and Rhode Island. In these states, households at the median income level can only afford 19 to 23 percent of the active housing inventory.

In contrast, the most affordable states are Ohio, Indiana, Kansas, Iowa, and West Virginia, where a a typical household can afford 54 to 62 percent of all active inventory.

The report also indicates that more local markets are seeing worse affordability conditions compared to last year, with L.A., San Diego, San Jose, Ventura, and San Francisco leading the pack. In these markets, the typical household can only afford 3.0 to 11 percent of homes available for sale in their markets.

The typical household can afford nearly 75 percent of homes for sale in Dayton, OH, Toledo, OH, and Scranton, PA.

NAR’s Chief Economist, Dr. Lawrence Yun stated, “The survey confirms that the lack of entry-level supply is putting affordability pressures on too many buyers – especially those at the lower end of the market, where demand is the strongest.”

The report makes even more apparent why first-time buyers “struggle finding affordable properties to buy and are making up less than a third of home sales so far this year,” said Dr. Yun.

Although wages are on the rise, housing prices are outpacing these increases, and Dr. Yun points to the solution being “more homeowners selling, investors releasing their portfolio of single-family homes back onto the market and more single-family housing construction.”

Continue Reading

Emerging Stories

shares

Get The Real Daily
in your inbox

subscribe and get news and EXCLUSIVE content to your email inbox