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Real Estate Big Data

US Census results show times are a changing (so might your business)

(BIG DATA) New Census data gives us insight into a few key takeaways regarding population shifts and how this is affecting the real estate market.

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The Census results are in

Seriously, get excited. It’s hard to get psyched for spreadsheets. I get that. But the US Census results are as important as spreadsheets get, and for real estate in particular, it’s vital to know who’s where and why.

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The details for the 2016 census came in last week, and while it’s not mandatory reading, Trulia has taken a deep dive into the subject.

The details are absolutely worth your time, but here are four big takeaways for anyone in the business:

1. America is old

Ironically, the most important demographic trend in the eternal geopolitical adolescent that is the United States, full to the brim though it is of new tech and youth-worshipping advertising, is the increasing prevalence and importance of older adults.

To state the obvious, more old folks around is a very good thing.

For one, it means our overall health is improving. For another, it means a more stable, consistency-oriented marketplace than us twitchy millennials and Gen Y types.

As we’ve previously written, older Boomers are taking over the housing market. The fact that every one of the 100 major metro areas in the United States saw an increase in the population of adults 65 years of age or older, representing growth from 14.9% to 15.2% of the national population, is big news for real estate, because those folks buy it.

2. America is not white

For any of y’all still laboring under the impression that America is supposed to be a solely European-American nation – seriously guys, not since Leif Erickson’s brother-in-law ran screaming from the people who are actually from here; come to The Real Daily for all your obscure historical trivia needs – Caucasian population (that’s just fun to write) has shown neither growth nor decline in the last two years.

Nationwide, all population growth between 2015 and now has been 50.7% Hispanic, 23.4% Asian, 15.8% black, 8.6% people identifying as two or more of those races, and a whopping 0.2% Caucasian.

Importantly, white populations aren’t declining either. America’s just made up of everybody. Market likewise.

3. Trends stay trending

For all of the rhetoric on both sides of the political spectrum, the demographic changes shown in the Census track what trends they’ve clocked since the far-away days of the year 2000. In fact, population change has slowed in that time: between 2000 and 2010 the population grew at a rate of 0.9%; from 2010 to the present it’s slowed to 0.7%.

Immigration has not spiked, nor have demographics undergone substantial changes nationwide. That’s the math.

If someone says otherwise, exercise skepticism.

4. Cities are changing

Trends may be consistent nationwide, but there are always outliers, and outliers can mean opportunity.

Notably, as of the most recent census 26 of American’s 100 biggest metro areas are majority-minority, which is to say, the minority population taken as a whole is larger than the Caucasian one. That’s the same as 2015, but representative of a substantial change over time: in 2000, there were just 14.

Urban populations are absolutely getting more diverse, and people doing business in those places need to take note.

Some are also moving in surprising directions.

The Hispanic population of the Bay Area, California is declining: the only two metros of the 100 tracked by the census that showed a decline in Hispanic population this year are San Francisco and San Jose. Conversely, the most rapidly changing cities are Fort Lauderdale and Orlando, Florida, both of which saw a major influx of Hispanic-Americans this year as well as the last.

Interestingly, Las Vegas also saw a rise in both its Hispanic and Asian-American population.

That’s the word from the American org chart. Time to do business accordingly.

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#censusnews

Matt Salter is a writer and former fundraising and communications officer for nonprofit organizations, including Volunteers of America and PICO National Network. He’s excited to put his knowledge of fundraising, marketing, and all things digital to work for your reading enjoyment. When not writing about himself in the third person, Matt enjoys horror movies and tabletop gaming, and can usually be found somewhere in the DFW Metroplex with WiFi and a good all-day breakfast.

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Real Estate Big Data

What your occupation says about your divorce probability

(BIG DATA) Recently, a statistician decided to crunch and compile numbers to see where exactly which profession and income fell along the divorce rate curve.

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The divorce rate in this country is absurd. While it is a widely disputed topic, most people quote the rate at somewhere around 40-50%. Whoa.

Recently, one study dove into if there was any correlation between occupation and divorce rate and it was equally predictable and fascinating.

Before the study began, there was a note made that different groups of people have different divorce rates. Generally speaking, the unemployed have a higher rate than the employed, Asians tend to have a lower rate than other races, and education level tends to play a pretty big part in divorce rates as well.

The study, though, focused on specific occupation and not general background data. Statistician Nathan Yau took data from the Census Bureau’s 5-Year American Community Survey from 2015 to do the calculations.

As it turns out, actuaries have the lowest rates. At 17%, it seems pretty fitting seeing as actuaries are the assessors of risk and uncertainty so it makes sense that would apply that assessment to their life and future spouse.

Actuaries were followed by miscellaneous scientists, engineers and architects, technology workers and other medical professionals. Those all were located near the 20% rate.

The Median Divorce Rate quoted on this study was at 36% ish and hovering around there were service industry workers, nurses, construction workers and a handful of other blue collar workers.

Just higher than median at roughly 37% were those who were in sales — I’m lookin’ at you travel agents, real estate brokers, and car salesmen.

At the high side were people who, I’m going to take a guess, are either thanked too much or not enough. At the top of the chart we found people like entertainers, athletes and celebrities (those thanked too much) as well as personal care workers, millwrights and telemarketers (those not thanked enough).

At the very tippy top of the list were flight attendants at 51%, bartenders at 52%, and gaming managers at 53%.

Upon seeing trends in occupation, a correlation was drawn to income and divorce as well.

It was concluded that people with higher salaried occupations tend to have a lower divorce rate — ie physicians/surgeons (~$160k, 21%), podiatrists (~$100k, 22%), and actuaries (~$98k, 17%) — while occupations with lower incomes had higher rates — ie flight attendants (~$40k, 51%), bartenders (~$19k, 52%), and gaming managers (~$41k, 53%).

It is worth mentioning that correlation is not causation (my high school economics teacher would be so proud) and that divorce rates are not an absolute science. I’m sure there are physicians on their fifth spouse and bartenders well into a decade of marriage.

As a child of divorce I have a morbid interest in studies like this and in the interest of not being a statistic myself (a kid from a divorce that gets divorced) I have one very important question: Anyone know where to meet an actuary?

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Real Estate Big Data

Is your MLS on the RESO naughty list?

(REAL ESTATE DATA) A lot has changed in the real estate industry at the MLS level, but if your MLS or Association is on the RESO naughty list, it may be time to say something so you’re not impacted negatively.

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RESO

Heaps and heaps of data

At the core of what makes up the real estate practice is sales, negotiation, marketing, and data. The last bit often eludes not only agents, but brokers, and to be frank, the industry as a whole.

We’re sitting on massive amounts of data, endless points of historical information that come together like glorious Legos to build the most beautiful giant city of castles you’ve ever seen.

But Legos aren’t exactly concrete or marble, so the industry has come together (including brokers volunteering time) to improve this mass of data we’re all sitting on, and the MLS is the first point of contact for all of this data and info. Years ago, the “Real Estate Standards Organization” (RESO) was established to organize and standardize this wealth of data.

Problem solved, right?

False, there’s still a problem

Nope. There are still an embarrassing number of multiple listing services and real estate boards that aren’t RESO certified, meaning their mountain of data could be sloppy, disorganized, useless in many cases.

There is a running naughty list of AORs/MLSs that aren’t RESO certified (see below), and if you belong to one of them, it is worth making a call to ask what their plans are to obtain certification and adhere to the industry standards so the data isn’t as weak as a 100-story Lego house.

AORs/MLSs Not RESO Data Dictionary Certified:
Altamaha Board of REALTORS®, Inc.
Bay County REALTOR® Association
Beckley Board of REALTORS®
Big Bear Assocation of Realtors
Brooklyn New York MLS (Broker-Owned Non-N.A.R. Affiliated)
Buffalo Trace MLS
Capital Region Multiple Listing Service
Central Coast Regional MLS (CCRMLS)
Columbus Georgia Board of REALTORS
Covington County Association of REALTORS
Cushing Board of REALTORS®
Dan River Region Board of REALTORS
Dublin Board of REALTORS, Inc.
Eastern Arkansas Realtors Association
Eastern Kentucky Association of Realtors
Eastern Shore Board of REALTORS
Fayette-Nicholas Board of REALTORS®
Four County Board of REALTORS®
GREENBRIER VALLEY BOARD OF REALTORS
Garden City Board of Realtors
Grand Island Board of REALTORS
Greater Hazleton Association Of Realtors
Greenville Area Board of REALTORS
Hays Board of Realtors
Heartland Assocation of Realtors Inc
Henderson County Board of REALTORS
Iron County Board of REALTORS®
Jamestown Board of REALTORS®
Kansas Association of Realtors (Kansas Statewide)
Key West Association of Realtors
Lexington-Bluegrass Assn of Realtors
Lynchburg Association of REALTORS
Martinsville, Henry & Patrick Counties Association of REALTORS
McDowell Board of REALTORS
Memphis Area Association Of Realtors® Inc
Midlands Board of Realtors
Midlands MLS Inc.
Milledgeville MLS
Mitchell Board of REALTORS®
Nebraska Realtors Outstate (NRA)
Norfolk Board Of Realtors (NRA)
Okeechobee County Board of Realtors
Otsego-Delaware Board of REALTORS
Phenix City Board of REALTORS
Pike County Board of REALTORS
Pittsburg Board of REALTORS
Plainview Association of REALTORS®
Rockingham County Association of REALTORS
Royal Palm Coast Realtor Association
Russellville Board of Realtors
Salina MLS
Sheridan County Board of REALTORS
South Central Association of REALTORS
Southeast Georgia MLS
Southeast Kansas MLS
Southern Midlands Board of REALTORS
Southern Piedmont Land & Lake Assn of Realtors
Southwest Kansas MLS
Southwest Mississippi Board of REALTORS, Inc.
Tehachapi Area Association of REALTORS
Tennessee Valley Association of REALTORS
Tulare County Association of REALTORS®
Upper Cumberland Association of REALTORS
Williston Board of REALTORS®
Wiregrass Board of REALTORS®
Yancy Mitchell County Board of Realtors North Carolina

AORs/MLSs Not RESO Web API Certified
Altamaha Board of REALTORS®, Inc.
Americus Board of REALTORS
Ann Arbor Area Board of REALTORS
Ashland Board of Realtors
Bakersfield Association of REALTORS
Bay Area Real Estate Information Services
Bay County REALTOR® Association
Beckley Board of REALTORS®
Benton County Multiple Listing Service
Big Bear Association of Realtors
Boone County Board of REALTORS
Brooklyn New York MLS (Broker-Owned Non-N.A.R. Affiliated)
Buffalo Trace MLS
California Desert Association of REALTORS
Central Oregon Association of Realtors
Central Penn Multi-List
Cincinnati Area Board of REALTORS
Clear Lake Board of REALTORS
Columbia Greene Northern Dutchess
Columbus Georgia Board of REALTORS
Covington County Association of REALTORS
Crisp Area Board of Realtors, Inc.
Cushing Board of REALTORS®
Dan River Region Board of REALTORS
Dublin Board of REALTORS, Inc.
East Central Association of REALTORS
Eastern Arkansas Realtors Association
Eastern Kentucky Association of Realtors
Eastern Shore Board of REALTORS
Emporia Board of REALTORS
Fayette-Nicholas Board of REALTORS®
Firelands Association of REALTORS
Flint Hills Board of REALTORS
Four County Board of REALTORS®
Fresno Association of REALTORS
GREENBRIER VALLEY BOARD OF REALTORS
Garden City Board of Realtors
Goodland Board of REALTORS
Grand Island Board of REALTORS
Greater Hazleton Association Of Realtors
Greater Northwest Indiana Association of REALTORS
Greater Portsmouth Area Board of Realtors
Greenville Area Board of REALTORS
Hays Board of Realtors
Heart of Iowa Board of REALTORS®, Inc.
Henderson County Board of REALTORS
High Desert Association of REALTORS
Highlands-Cashiers Multiple Listing Service, Inc.
Humboldt Assoc. of REALTORS, Inc.
Huntingdon County Board of REALTORS
Internet-Technology Pasadena-Foothill
Iowa Statewide
Iron County Board of REALTORS®
Jamestown Board of REALTORS®
Kansas Association of Realtors (Kansas Statewide)
Key West Association of Realtors
Kings County Board of REALTORS
Lexington-Bluegrass Association of REALTORS
Lubbock Asssocation of REALTORS
Lynchburg Association of REALTORS
Madisonville Hopkins County Board of REALTORS
Marshalltown Board of REALTORS
Martinsville, Henry & Patrick Counties Association of REALTORS
McDowell Board of REALTORS
McKean County Association of Realtors
Midlands Board of Realtors
Milledgeville MLS
Mitchell Board of REALTORS®
Monroe County Board of Realtors
Moultrie Board of Realtors
Nevada County Association of REALTORS
Newton Board of REALTORS
North Central Board Of Realtors – Ponca
North Central Iowa Board of REALTORS
Northwest Iowa MLS
Ojai Valley Board of REALTORS
Otsego-Delaware Board of REALTORS
Phenix City Board of REALTORS
Pike County Board of REALTORS
Pittsburg Board of REALTORS
Plainview Association of REALTORS®
Plymouth County Board of REALTORS
Poweshiek County MLS
REALTORS Association of Lincoln (Midlands MLS)
Rockingham County Association of REALTORS
Royal Palm Coast Realtor Association
Russellville Board of Realtors
Salina MLS
San Francisco Association of REALTORS
Sheridan County Board of REALTORS
Snake River Regional Multiple Listing Service
Somerset-Lake Cumberland Board of REALTORS
South Central Association of REALTORS
South Tahoe Association of REALTORS, Inc.
Southeast Georgia MLS
Southeast Iowa Regional MLS
Southeast Kansas MLS
Southern Indiana REALTORS® Association
Southern Midlands Board of REALTORS
Southern Oregon Multiple Listing Service
Southern Piedmont Land & Lake Assn of Realtors
Southwest Georgia Board of Realtors MLS
Southwest Kansas MLS
Southwest Mississippi Board of REALTORS, Inc.
Storm Lake Multiple Listing Service
Tama County Board of REALTORS
Tehachapi Area Association of REALTORS
Tennessee Valley Association of REALTORS
Tulare County Association of REALTORS
Upper Cumberland Association of REALTORS
Vail Board of REALTORS
Valdosta Board of REALTORS/South Georgia MLS
Webster City MLS
West Central Iowa Regional MLS
Western Steuben Allegany Association of Realtors, Inc.
Williston Board of REALTORS®
Wiregrass Board of REALTORS®
Yancy Mitchell County Board of Realtors North Carolina

If you didn’t know, now you know

RESO says their organization “develops, promotes and maintains, through an open process, voluntary electronic commerce standards for the real estate industry. As a standards setting organization involving the participation of competitors, RESO is committed to full compliance with all laws and regulations and to maintaining the highest ethical standards in the way it conducts its operations and activities.”

If you belong to one of the aforementioned AORs/MLSs, perhaps it is time for you to get involved and volunteer alongside the hundreds of other volunteers that keep RESO running smoothly nationwide.

#RESOnaughtylist

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Real Estate Big Data

Indeed’s list of the cities that stretch your paycheck the furthest

(BIG DATA) Indeed recently released a list of cities that show where you get the biggest bang for your buck.

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MONEY, IT’S A HIT

If you’ve ever had the misfortune of sitting down to assess your personal budget, you know the pain of debating if living costs in your area are worth it compared to your income. Generally, the cities with the highest income are also paired with higher living costs.

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San Jose, San Francisco, Washington, DC, Fairfield County, CT, and New York are America’s five metros with the highest salaries, and also some of the most expensive places to live. Is it worth getting paid more if you also end up paying more? Can’t there be some mystical region with low cost of living where you can also rake in a sizable paycheck?

INDEED’S METHODOLOGY

Luckily for those of us too lazy to use Google or math, the nice folks at Indeed drew up a list of Cities Where a Paycheck Goes the Furthest in 2017. Using salary data from August 2016 to July 2017, they calculated an average of all jobs with annual salary information for each of the 104 US metropolitan areas with at least 500,000 residents.

After adjusting for each metro’s cost of living and considering unadjusted average salaries based on fixed-effects regression model, Indeed ended up with some helpful comparisons.

WHAT THEY FOUND

Check out if your city made the list.

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HIGH AND LOW

After adjusting for cost of living, coastal metro areas with high salaries aren’t such a great deal. None of the big coastal metros ranked in the Top 20 list of affordability, but tinier metros in the South and Midwest made it. In fact the only California metros on the list are from the Pacific region, where housing is significantly less expensive than the coast.

Indeed notes, “adjusted salaries are higher outside the largest metros. Even though you’ll see more money on your paystubs in bigger metros than in smaller metros, those big-city salaries are outweighed by an even higher cost of living.” The highest adjusted salaries where your paycheck spreads the furthest are in Birmingham, AL, Jackson, MS, and Fresno, CA.

Honolulu, Hawaii topped the list for where salaries stretch the least.

Although housing costs are lower in Honolulu than San Francisco and San Jose, physical goods must be shipped to Hawaii, and their adjusted salaries are among the lowest in the country.

MOVING ON UP

So why doesn’t everyone just move to where the cities on the top 20 list? Because moving is money, and uprooting your life and job can be a huge ordeal if you have family and friends in your area. Job security is another factor to consider. Although one area may have a higher adjusted income, it could be riskier to make the move if the job market is less stable.

Indeed also points out that some places are desirable locations even if they’re not so easy on your wallet (aloha, Hawaii.) Plus, in areas high in routine jobs, the threat of automation/robot takeover is very real. Check out Indeed’s blog post for more info on their methodology and fun charts.

#GoFurther

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